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☆ A six-day train strike is the last thing the German economy needs
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —Germany is bracing for widespread disruption to rail services after train drivers embarked on a record six-day strike Wednesday, which will further strain crucial supply chains and deal a new blow to the sputtering economy. The state-owned rail operator said the action would cause “massive disruptions” to long-distance, regional and city commuter services until Monday. That was a major drag on the economy overall, with gross domestic product falling 0.3% in 2023, likely the weakest performance among Europe’s big countries. The strike represents “a major logistical challenge” for the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, the German Chemicals Industry Association told CNN. Germany’s supply chains are already struggling because of attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Persons: Joerg Kraemer, “, ”, Anja, GDL, Claus Weselsky, Tesla, Michael Groemling, Chris Stern Organizations: London CNN —, Germany’s, Deutsche Bahn, Freight, Deutsche Bahn’s, German Chemicals Industry Association, CNN, German Association of, Automotive Industry, Tuesday Deutsche Bahn, Cologne Institute, Economic Research Locations: London CNN — Germany, Germany, Germany’s, “, Red, Berlin

☆ Germany's budget committee pauses 2024 budget deliberations -panel members
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Maria Martinez | Thomson Reuters | Maria Martinez Is A Reuters Correspondent In Berlin Covering German Economics | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Liesa Johannssen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Germany's budget committee paused final deliberations on the 2024 draft budget early on Friday morning, according to the chief budget officers of the coalition government, after a constitutional court ruling threw negotiations into disarray. The contents of the ministries' budgets were finalised during the committee meeting, the budget officers said. On Wednesday, the constitutional court decision prompted the government to postpone the formal vote of the budget committee until next Thursday. Despite the court ruling, the 2024 budget is expected to be passed as planned at the end of the Bundestag's budget week on Dec. 1, according to members of the budget committee. The chief budget officers of the coalition government accused the opposition of refusing to cooperate in budget deliberations.

Persons: Liesa, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Joerg Kraemer, Friedrich Merz, Commerzbank's Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Holger Hansen, Clarence Fernandez, Gerry Doyle Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Greens, Free Democrats, European Commission, dpa, Bundestag's Energy, CDU, CSU, Christian Democratic Union, ESF, Economic, Stabilization, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Ukraine

The economy and finance ministry declined immediate comment. "So the ruling could have a negative impact on economic growth," the source added. Last month, the economy ministry predicted 1.3% growth for next year. Although the Greens want additional spending, the Free Democrats (FDP), which heads the finance ministry, reject additional debt and higher taxes. "There is a clear political decision in favour of Intel and nothing has changed yet," said an economy ministry spokesperson on Friday.

Persons: Liesa, Olaf Scholz's, Christian Lindner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Joerg Kraemer, Robert Habeck, Habeck, Friedrich Merz, Christian Haase, Commerzbank's Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Andreas Rinke, Holger Hansen, Christian Kraemer, Madeline Chambers, Matthias Williams, Clarence Fernandez, Gerry Doyle, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Thursday, Greens, Free Democrats, Transformation, Intel, U.S, Christian Democratic Union, ESF, Economic, Stabilization, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe's

Looking ahead, the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said. "The German economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said. The contraction in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the German economy to contract again in the winter half-year. Economists will pay close attention to national inflation data from Germany and Spain, as they are published one day before the euro zone inflation data release. Euro zone inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in October from 4.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Persons: Arnd, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, optimists, Joerg Kraemer, Claus Vistesen, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Miral Fahmy, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gross, Reuters, ING, European Central, Macroeconomics, Thomson Locations: Konstanz, Germany, Spain

☆ Germany is struggling to move away from its ‘sick man of Europe’ image
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Germany was first described with that moniker in 1998 as the country navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy. The issues weighing on Germany's economy can be separated into "two very separate battles," Stefan Kooths, research director for business cycles and growth at the Kiel Institute for World Economy, told CNBC. "It is a different sickness [compared to] 20 years ago," Brzeski told CNBC. Energy obstaclesLike most of Europe, Germany's energy prices have been volatile following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "Many Germany-headquartered businesses are doing well globally, but they are struggling with operations in their own country," Siegfried Russwurm, head of the German Industry Federation, told CNBC in June.

Persons: DANIEL ROLAND, aren't, it's, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Jasmin Groeschl, Stefan Kooths, Carsten Brzeski, China's, Brzeski, Groeschl, Joerg Kraemer, Kooths, Siegfried Russwurm Organizations: Frankfurt Cathedral, AFP, Getty, International Monetary Fund, Berenberg, CNBC, Europe, Allianz, Kiel Institute, World, ING Research, German Industry Federation Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, France, China, Kiel, Ukraine

☆ Analysis: China's importance to German exporters on the wane
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's emergence as a market economy in the 2000s provided a massive boost to German companies and has proved a big contributor to the overall health of the German economy since. That China is increasingly able to produce goods it previously bought from Germany is weighing on German exports, Brzeski noted. However, the dependence of many companies on the Chinese market will no longer be so visible in export figures, but in their balance sheets," Stamer said. For example, many German carmakers are increasingly producing locally for the Chinese market. Weaker demand from China has had a strong impact on the German manufacturing sector.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Joerg Kraemer, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Vincent Stamer, Stamer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, ING, Reuters Graphics Germany, Kiel Institute, PMI, Thomson Locations: Bremerhaven, Germany, China, BERLIN, Berlin, Beijing, U.S, United States

☆ Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe

"Germans are cautious by nature," said Stephan Fetsch, Germany's head of consumer goods at KPMG. Economists polled by Reuters are split on its second quarter fortunes: views ranged from a 0.3% GDP fall to a 0.5% gain, with a median forecast of 0.2% growth. However, German consumer sentiment remains below its pandemic low in the spring of 2020 and the consumer barometer from the German Retail Association (HDE) shows a similar picture. German consumers were hit particularly hard by high energy prices, being more dependent on Russia gas. "The German consumer has reasons to be scared and the result of all the economic uncertainty is usually an increase in precautionary savings," said Michael Burda, economics professor at Humboldt University Berlin.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Germany's, Stephan Fetsch, Holger Schmieding, Carsten Brzeski, KPMG's Fetsch, Joerg Kraemer, Michael Burda, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, KPMG, Reuters, German Retail Association, Berenberg, ING, European Central Bank, Humboldt University Berlin, Thomson Locations: Cologne, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, France, Italy, Russia, Berlin, China, Bengaluru

☆ European Central Bank set to slow rate hikes as financial conditions tighten rapidly
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank is expected to lift its benchmark rate by a smaller step of 25 basis points Thursday, as core inflation declines and its own survey data points to much tighter financial conditions in the region. The ECB has kept interest at zero, and below, for years, and has launched bond-buying program like the APP (Asset Purchase Program) and PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) in an effort to simulate lending. On the other hand, PEPP was a more flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic. "It's a positive sign that core inflation has fallen for the first time in a long time. In addition, the ECB's bank lending survey pointed to an exceptionally large drop in credit demand amid tighter lending criteria, adding to the case for a smaller rate hike.

"The German economy remained stuck in the mud at the start of 2023, only barely avoiding recession," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said. The German economy shrank by a revised 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, reviving fears of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. "A gradual recovery is underway, despite a persistently difficult environment," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the presentation of the forecasts. "The recent renaissance in industrial production could very well carry the economy through the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said. "However, we are afraid that looking into the second half of the year, the German economy will continue its flirtation with recession."

☆ German business sentiment unexpectedly rises in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, March 27 (Reuters) - German business morale unexpectedly rose in March, adding to signs that Europe's largest economy is stabilizing despite recent turmoil in the banking sector, a survey showed on Monday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index jumped to 93.3 from a reading of 91.1 in February. The increase in business morale for the fifth month in a row was driven primarily by business expectations, Ifo said. The expectations index rose to 91.2 in March from a revised 88.4 the month before, its highest level in at least a year. Reporting by Miranda Murray, Editing by Friederike HeineOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Two of Germany's largest airports, Munich and Frankfurt, suspended flights, while long-distance rail services were cancelled by rail operator Deutsche Bahn (DBN.UL). "Millions of passengers who depend on buses and trains are suffering from this excessive, exaggerated strike," a Deutsche Bahn spokesperson said on Monday. At the same time, in France they go on strike all the time about something," said passenger Lars Boehm. The head of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel said last week Germany needed to avoid a price-wage spiral. "Despite signs of second-round effects, we have not observed a destabilising price-wage spiral in Germany so far."

☆ Analysis: Wage catch-up to prolong Europe's inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Part of the wage increase is understandable," said Jens Ulbrich, chief economist at Germany's Bundesbank. Yet the rapid wage growth underway now will hamper the European Central Bank's efforts to get inflation back to its 2% target, and possibly force it to keep interest rates high for longer. "We are taking a first step, but much more is needed to reverse the years of lopsided wage growth," Kager added. "The inflation trend, food and especially energy prices are tearing deep holes in our workers' budgets," ver.di Chairman Frank Werneke said. "The high levels of wage growth projected for 2023 and 2024 can be expected to make wages an increasingly dominant driver of underlying inflation in the euro area," Lane says.

Despite relief measures, energy prices in February were 19.1% higher on the year, while food prices were 21.8% higher, it said. The first one was driven by energy prices and the second one by material inputs, which are not ebbing. While energy prices were keeping headline inflation high, wage growth will show its impact in core inflation, which will remain stubbornly high, Brzeski said. "Hence, a stepdown to a 25bp pace of hikes could be delayed, which would also push the terminal rate higher." "The interest rate step announced for March will not be the last," Nagel said in a speech.

☆ German inflation remains high at start of year
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Maria Martinez | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Compared with December, prices increased by 0.5%, it added, confirming preliminary data on both a monthly and annual basis. "Following a slowdown at the end of last year, the inflation rate thus remains at a high level," said Ruth Brand, president of the German statistics office. Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate stood at 7.2% in January. "The rate of food price increase thus was more than twice the overall inflation rate again," the statistics office said. Prices of goods were up 12.7% on year in January and services prices increased 4.5% on year.

☆ German EU-harmonised January consumer prices rise 9.2% y/y
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Maria Martinez | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Harmonised German consumer prices in Jan rise 9.2% y/yDownward trend in inflation expected to continue - CommerzbankCore inflation forecast to remain high, economists sayBERLIN, Feb 9 (Reuters) - German consumer prices, harmonised to compare with other European Union countries, rose by a less-than-anticipated 9.2% on the year in January, preliminary data from the federal statistics office showed on Thursday. According to non-harmonised standards, German consumer prices rose 8.7% on year in January and 1.0% on the month. "Because core inflation will remain high in 2023, a fundamental easing of inflation is not in sight," said Alexander Krueger, chief economist at Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe Privatbank. The final results for January and all results recalculated from January 2020 onwards using the new 2020 base year will be published by the statistics office on Feb. 22. The statistics office offers a breakdown for January's figures on its website.

☆ German business morale brightens further in January - Ifo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File PhotoBERLIN, Jan 25 (Reuters) - German business morale brightened in January as Europe's largest economy started the new year with easing inflation and an improved outlook, a survey said on Wednesday. The Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 90.2, in line with consensus according to a Reuters poll of analysts and up from a reading of 88.6 in December. "The German economy is starting the new year with more confidence," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. The increase is driven by considerably less pessimistic expectations, while companies were, however, somewhat less satisfied with their current situation, Ifo said. "The Ifo business climate has recovered significantly for the third time in a row as the easing on the gas market further diminished companies' fears of a severe recession," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

☆ German inflation slows in December on one-off energy payment
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Miranda Murray | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A one-off payment for household energy bills in December, part of government efforts to shield consumers, had a downward effect on prices, according to the statistics office. Energy prices eased somewhat in December but were still up 24.4% compared with the same period last year, while food prices had increased by 20.7%, according to the office. Germany's full-year harmonized inflation rate jumped to 8.7% in 2022 from 3.2% a year earlier, said the statistics office. "Core inflation remains the number one inflation scourge for the time being," he added, referring to a measure that excludes volatile food and energy costs. Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer also warned that core inflation had risen further and said the European Central Bank's "hesitant approach" means high inflation will stick around, despite energy relief measures.

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